If you are an analyst or an analytical leader, how do you practice data-driven decision making? One low-cost way is to use prediction markets. They give you a concrete target and a natural feedback mechanism when the market resolves. This tutorial explores that process. There is an open prediction market on polymarket.com based on July … [Read more…]
“You are who you be” is a phrase that crosses my mind nearly 1x per day. It reminds me that I am what I do – my actions determine who I am. The last word, “be”, is a subtle reminder that consistent behaviors are the inputs that ultimately determine the success or failure of longer … [Read more…]
Last year, 2021, was a shake-up for US labor markets (to say the least). One of the most prominent metrics from the BLS was the number of people quitting and switching jobs (i.e. the Great Resignation). One way to think about it is that in September 2021, ~25% more workers quit their job than in … [Read more…]
I run prediction markets within Target. In order to estimate how surprised I should be by streaks of correct predictions by individuals, I use toy simulations.
A common challenge with control charts: how much history should you use to create the limits? Change point detection can help and I use the Cass Freight Index to demonstrate.
What comes first, the story or the data? I’ve been exploring that delicate balance with change-point algorithms and a chart from Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century. #dataanalytics
In Great By Choice, Jim Collins teaches us that there is no new normal… there is always just uncertainty and change. Predicting the future is hard. The best leaders and organizations, as such, plan for multiple futures and hedge accordingly. They plan probabilistically. One tool that can assist in scenario planning is Monte Carlo simulation. … [Read more…]
Last week, I finished the 6 course Data Analyst Nanodegree offered by Sabastian Thrun’s Udacity Inc. Even with an above average number of academic credentials behind me, I will venture to say that this was the best educational endeavor I’ve been through yet. When I worked through my undergrad and graduate degrees in economics, I … [Read more…]
I’ve created an ‘in-progress’ google spreadsheet for a lot of the exercises and examples in Udacity’s Intro Statistics courses (Intro to Descriptive Statistics & Intro to Statistical Inference) — link is below. When I used to teach finance, I taught class with spreadsheets like this one rather than with powerpoint. Preparing this kind of document … [Read more…]
